Wednesday, January 18, 2017

China December 2016 (Updated)


Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
Geely Emgrand EV


Newcomers Month

The Chinese market had 44.874 new EV's in December, far from the 60.000 expected by analysts, but still up 27% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.45%, above the USA (0.9%) and Europe (1.3%).

Despite the “disappointing” plateauing in December, which a bit like expecting that Usain Bolt breaks the 0-100 meters World Record every time he goes on track, looking at the big picture, the 351.861 units registered in China during 2016 represent approximately 46% of ALL plug-ins sold worldwide this year, with Chinese carmakers responsible for 43% of all EV production in 2016.

To confirm the rising trend of the Big Red Giant, in 2013 China had only 6% of the worldwide plug-in production, since then it had increased share at a 11-12% yearly pace.

In December there were a number of fresh models shining, with the BAIC EC180 being the most impressive, reaching Second Place right on its landing month.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

   
Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
#1 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, joined this year the EV Bandwagon, by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month it was the most successful to date, with a massive 6.023 units, a new all-time record for a single model, allowing it to win for the first time the Best Seller status. With ok looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is betting to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the more export-oriented Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.


Image result for baic ec180
#2 – BAIC EC180: After being shown in last November, the BAIC EC180 has landed in the following month with a bang, registering 4.128 units, a new record for a debut month, this city car has the advantage of offering a rather appealing Crossoverized-look, good equipment features, Ok interiors and a usable range, with 180 kms. Is this enough to sustain the record figures registered in December? No one really knows, but BAIC has great ambitions for this platform, with more models coming and input from a certain LeEco company…
  

Image result for chery arrizo 7 phev specs
#3 – Chery Arrizo 7 PHEV: Another newcomer willing to stir the established players, the Arrizo 7 PHEV is Chery’s new product, having arrived just in October, it is already reaching the podium, thanks to 2.922 registrations last month. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in hybrid sedan market, with a starting price of 150k Yuan (20.500 euro), a 9.3 kWh battery and 50 kms electric range, this model wants to give the BYD Qin and SAIC’s e550 a run for the money and hopefully repeat this podium position in other occasions.


Image result for byd e6 specs 
#4 – BYD e6: Below all these newcomers we have the longest running plug-in in China, zooming the streets since 2010, the BYD e6, this model experienced a record year in 2016, thanks to some new impressive range specs, shaming everyone bar Tesla, with its 400 kms range coming from a 80 kWh battery. Popular among taxi-fleets, this model ended the year with 2.528 units in December.


Image result for byd e5 specs 
#5 – BYD e5: This plain-Jane sedan is on the rise, having beaten its monthly record, with 2.420 units delivered in December, starting to become a regular in this Top 5. Unlike the more show stopping BYD Qin EV300, the e5 feels more taxi-friendly regular looking but with basically the same specs as the all-electric Qin, 305 kms range included. A BYD for cost conscious (230k Yuan / 30k Euro) customers.



Year-to-Date Ranking – 100% BYD Podium


With over 70(!) models on sale, three of them landing last month, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

Proof of this balance is the fact the BYD Tang, China’s Best Selling Plug-in in 2016, ended the year with 31.000 units, or just 9% of the plug-in market, the lowest share of any winner in the World. Also, it hasn’t won any Monthly Best Seller trophy since July…Despite this, it was a record year for the Chinese SUV, scoring 31.405 units, slightly below the 31.898 all-time record set by its BYD Qin relative in 2015, but enough to leave the same BYD Qin in Second Place this year, some 10.000 units behind.

But the real surprise this year was the Third Place of the veteran BYD e6, thanks to a strong Q4 (7.715 units), it climbed to Third Place for the first time since 2013, with a record 20.605 units, making it three BYD’s in the podium seats, a first.

Below we find two BAIC’s, the E-Series EV and the EU260, both had disappointing performances in December and were surpassed by the old fox BYD e6, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #6 in December, leaving strong credentials for 2017. Will we see it run for the leadership?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 3% share, to 28%, but it was enough to win the Manufacturers title (Third in a row), to put three BYD’s in the podium, another in #9 and other in #14. Not bad, eh?

BAIC (12%) ended in Second Place and Zotye (11%) secured the Third Spot, ahead of SAIC, Chery and Zhidou, all with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, so here is a small tip on its performance, there was only some 100 Model S delivered in December, because that month was the first mass delivery of the Model X, with more than 1.000 units being registered that month.

As result, Tesla ended the year with 3% share, being the Best Selling foreign manufacturer, ahead of Porsche (1%).

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, ending the year at 76%, up 1% regarding November 2016 and 7% more than the result achieved in 2015.


Pl
China
Dec.
YTD
%
1
BYD Tang
1.510
31.405
9
2
BYD Qin
821
21.868
6
3
BYD e6
2.528
20.605
6
4
BAIC E-Series EV
227
18.814
5
5
6
7
8
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand EV
Zotye Cloud EV
Chery eQ
309
6.023
1.615
1.927
18.805
17.181
16.417
16.017
5
5
5
5
9
BYD e5
2.420
15.639
4
10
SAIC Roewe e550
620
15.145
4
11
Zotye E200
2.213
13.154
4
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Zhidou D1 EV
JMC E100
BYD Qin EV300
JAC I EV 4
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model S  e)
Kandi K17 Cyclone
JAC I EV 5
Changan Eado EV
Others
491
921
519
1.407
1.347
108
758
1.088
504
17.518
11.201
10.823
10.656
10.453
9.091
7.548
6.862
4.971
4.839
70.367
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
21
TOTAL Market
44.874
351.861
100


 e) Estimate

Article published also on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica

18 comments:

  1. Does this mean that BYD for the second month in a row didn't manage to deliver 10 000 or more or is that to early to say as they have other markets then China?

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  2. You're right, even if they exported some units and i still don't have them on radar, the total amount for December shouldn't reach 9.000 units.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. However during 2016 BYD manage to deliver more than 100,000 plug-in cars in China, while Tesla Motors delivered 76,243 globally, enough to make BYD Auto the world's best selling plug-in car manufacturer for a second year in a row (in 2015 BYD delivered over 60,000). Third place must be BMW (62,000) followed by Nissan (+50,000)

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    2. You are right Mario, i will only add that Nissan might end the year at 55-56k.

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    3. BYD needs the new plug in cars urgently. However, they sold over 6000 buses each in both November and December. Maybe they ran out of batteries for the cars...

      By the way, Jose: ofweek has published yearly sales numbers of ebuses in China by brand. I recall it was always notoriously hard to come by such stats. http://m.nev.ofweek.com/2017-01/ART-71011-8420-30092804.html

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    4. Wow, 6000 buses per month. Considering they have put 300 kWh batteries in their buses, is logical they have exausted capacity for regular cars.

      Thanks for the precious help!

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  3. José, I think that Elon said recently (in the recent gigafactory investors event?) that two ship with Tesla cars was not able to dock in Chinese ports because of pollution smog in time to the end of the year.
    So maybe, these two ships were full of Tesla model S...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe that would explain a lot on the Tesla performance, not only in China, but also on why the Model S didn't peak as high as in previous Quarters.

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  4. In 2016, China produced 517,000 new energy vehicles
    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1028980.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  5. So do you have any estimation for Model X total 2016 deliveries number in China?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, some 1.600-2.100 units

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    2. Also my estimation. Thanks.

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  6. Jose, FYI, KNDI total sales to include K10, K12 and K17 was 11,546 which actually makes it their second best year in spite of all the confusion in 2016. Also, it did 2861 in Q4 which easily beats the Guidance given of 2000-2200 at Q3 earnings report.
    https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://auto.163.com/17/0111/08/CAG2B625000884MM.html&prev=search

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Jose,

    http://auto.gasgoo.com/News/2017/01/11074848484870004835C501.shtml
    shows that 2016 total ev sales in china is 324,171 (by CAMRA&CPCA).the stats is somehow different from yours, but meantime, I check the top 5 model sales numbers, which is the same between this two. Im wondering which parts goes wrong, maybe the definition of market are different? thx

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  8. Part of the difference regards imports, which are counted on EV Sales.

    This only explains part of the difference, the rest i would have to see in detail the numbers, but i would guess it has to do with smaller brands (Hautai, Haima, Yulu, etc).

    Also, i have the notion that the real EV market in China might be even larger than what i track, maybe 20% more, due to smaller brands that are still off radar.

    ReplyDelete
  9. What about Dongfeng Fengnuo E200/E300?
    Dfeng never in the sales list?
    Dongfeng e200 with 35kwh, fast charge tri-fasic, and better quality so i spected god sales.
    https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://www.wsche.com/new/newcar/2016122667920_3.html&prev=search

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey, the Fluence ZE arrived to China!

      I did some checking and i believe it wasn't officially launched yet, will keep a close eye to it, thanks!

      Delete